【报告名称】: 印度轮胎行业研究报告-Indian Tyre Industry
【出版时间】: 2011年01月  
【出版价格】: 电子版 1000美元 
【购买热线】: 0754-86308879

摘要

Indian tyre industry is on a brink of major structural change
Domestic tyre industry has witnessed a remarkable recovery in FY10, after a slowdown in FY09. This growth was driven by strong revival in automobile demand on the back of resurgence in economy, rise in employment levels, and easing of interest rate scenario. Although strong demand growth is an encouraging scenario for the domestic industry, rising imports has become key concern factor off-late. Conservative estimates of tyre manufactures on automobile demand scenario for FY10, led to supply constraints in the industry and in-turn pushing imports. The situation was graver in T&B and passenger car category tyres as compared to any other category. However, gauging the immense market potential almost all the major manufacturers have announced aggressive expansion plans for next 4-5 years which is expected to ease out the supply constraint situation in the industry.
The tyre industry is on a brink of a major structural change. T&B which is a dominant segment in terms of tonnage is witnessing a gradual rise in the proportion of radial tyres. Going by the global trend it seems that the radial tyre demand in India is at inflection point and with almost 97-98 per cent of the passenger car tyre production has been radialised, T&B tyre category is the next major category to witness spurt in the demand for radial tyres. And with improvement in road infrastructure and better cost economics the proportion of radial tyres in T&B category is expected to expand by around seven times from the current levels. Sighting this opportunity, almost all the expansion plans for T&B category tyres are for radial category tyres.
In FY10, almost all the manufacturers reported healthy rise in their top-line, driven by growth in both volumes and realisation. Operating margins also observed improvement owing to sharp drop in raw material prices. Going forward it is expected that, industry's top-line will continue to witness healthy growth scenario, however industry would face challenge of rising raw material prices and increase in interest cost.
We have developed detailed model for forecasting OEMs as well as replacement demand for all the tyre categories like Truck and Bus (T&B), passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, tractors and light commercial vehicles (LCV). Strong understanding of automobile as well as tyre sector is percolated down to the auto component sector and thus the demand for tyres is forecasted as well on the basis of projected automobile sales and population.

目录

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Domestic demand to witness healthy 9-10 per cent growth on long term basis
Radial tyre demand is at inflection point and set to spurt in T&B category
Investment of around US $1.9-2.2 billion expected in next 5 years in capex
Capacity utilisation levels to remain strong
EBDITA margins are expected to remain under pressure
Challenging time ahead for the industry
SECTION I: INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC MARKET
Domestic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9-10 per cent till FY15
OEM demand to grow at a CAGR of 11 per cent
Cars & Jeep category to push growth in OEM offtake
Replacement demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8 per cent
Dominant T&B category to witness lower growth than the overall replacement demand
MAV operator can save around Re 1 per km by switching over to radial tyres
Radial tyres production in T&B category to increase by 50 per cent till FY15
Aggressive expansion lined up in T&B radial tyre category
......... Supply constraints may ease out
Imports is expected to gradually slow down
Exports to take backseat due to strong growth in domestic demand
OUTLOOK ON PROFITABILITY
Top-line to remain healthy
EBITDA margins to remain under strain on the back of rise in input cost
Investment of around Rs. 8,000-10,000 crore expected in next 4-5 years
Rising input prices-A concern for the industry
Net cash accruals to witness drop in next two years, while interest coverage to decline
SECTION II: INDUSTRY BASICS
EVOLUTION OF THE INDUSTRY
Inception phase (1920-1935)
Developmental phase (1935-1960)
Restriction phase (1961-1991)
Modernisation phase (1991 onwards)
TYRE BASICS
Structure of the tyre
Tread
Casing ply
Sidewalls
Bead
Performance parameters of tyres
Tyre inflation
Rolling resistance
Tyre noise
Tyre technology
INDUSTRY SEGMENTS
Vehicle Categories
Commercial usage
Personal usage
Markets
Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
Replacement Demand
Exports
Design
Cross-ply tyres
Radial Tyres
PLAYERS AND COMPETITION
Most of the players have their respective areas of strength
HHI indicated diversity in player concentration ratio between segments and industry
Apollo continued to dominate T&B category
Apollo surpassed MRF to become leader in car & jeep category
MRF continued to hold leadership position in LCV category
MRF dominated two and three wheeler category tyres
Goodyear remained market leader in tractor tyres
MRF, CEAT and JK are the market leaders in OTR category
DEMAND
Tyre demand registered strong growth in FY10
T&B category witnessed strong push owing to recovery in freight demand
Passenger cars & jeep category sales were led by favourable financing options
Two-wheeler tyre category also benefited from recovery in consumer spending
Tractor category witnessed sharp jump after decline in FY08 and FY09
Export market gaining importance
Strong demand from domestic market impacting exports
SUPPLY
Strong revival in automobile demand cropped up supply constraint in tyre industry
Higher utilisation level ensured better pricing power with tyre manufacturers
Domestic supply constraints driving tyres imports
Cars and T&B categories dominated overall imports.
China continues to dominate overall imports
Imposition of anti-dumping-A respite for the industry, but not for long
COST ANALYSIS
Raw material cost
Rubber
Nylon Tyre Cord Fabric (NTC)
Carbon Black
Employee Cost
Energy Cost
Selling and Distribution (S&D) Cost
Operating margins
Quarterly performance
CREDIT PROFILE
Return on capital employed impacted due to lower profitability in FY09
Debt-Equity ratio witnessed a steady decline
Working capital management
DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFILES
Apollo Tyres Ltd.
CEAT Ltd.
JK Tyres Ltd.
MRF Ltd.
SECTION III: ANNEXURES
Category wise Tyre Production-FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
Category wise Replacement Market offtakes-FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
Category wise OEM offtakes-FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
Category wise Exports-FY04-FY10 (Units in mn)
Category Wise Estimates for Cross-ply and Radial tyre as % of total tyre Production
Category Wise Passenger Vehicle Production (units)
Category Wise MHCV and LCV Production (units)
Category Wise Two Wheelers and Three wheelers Production (units)
Category Wise Tractor Production (units)

LIST OF CHARTS
Expected growth in domestic tyre industry-OEM and Replacement
Expected growth in domestic tyre industry-Category wise
Growth in the penetration of radial tyres in T&B category production
Estimated demand-supply gap in T&B radial tyre market in FY15
Estimated trend in utilisation levels
Outlook of domestic tyre industry
Segment wise outlook on OEM offtake (in tonnes)
Segment wise outlook on replacement off-take (in tonnes)
Projected rise of T&B radial tyre production
Estimates on breakeven point for the initial cost difference between radial and cross-ply
Evolution of radialisation in different countries
Expected demand and supply scenario in T&B radial tyres
Projected growth in tyre imports
Projected growth in tyre exports
Outlook on Indian Tyre Industry
Expected growth in rubber prices
Segment-wise share in commercial usage (in tonnage) for FY10
Segment-wise share in personal usage (in tonnage) for FY10
Share of OEM in total production for FY10 (in tonnage)
Segment-wise share in OEM's unit production for FY10 (per cent)
Segment-wise share in OEM's tonnage production for FY10 (per cent)
Share replacement (in tonnage) for FY10
Segment-wise share in replacement's unit production for FY10
Segment-wise share in replacement's tonnage production for FY10
Segment-wise share in exports for FY10 (in units)
Segment-wise share in exports for FY10 (in tonnes)
Proportion of cross-ply tyres in key segments (in tonnage) for FY10
Segment wise share in demand of radial tyres (in tonnage) for FY10
Player-wise market share in FY10 (units)
Player-wise market share in FY10 (tonnes)
Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) for different segments in tyre industry
Player-wise market share (%)-T&B tyres
Player-wise market share (%) Cars and Jeep Tyres
Player-wise market share (%)-LCV Tyres
Player-wise market share (%)-Two Wheeler and Three Wheeler Tyres
Player-wise market share (%)-Tractors Tyres
Player-wise market share (%)-OTR
Structure of a cross-ply tyre
Tyre Inflation
Trend in exports growth (Value in cr)
Trend in exports growth (units)
Trend in utilisation levels
Trend in imports (in units)
Trend in imports (in value)
Trend in realization
Trend in imports realisation of Chinese Tyres
Consumption of raw materials in industry (MT)
Annual trend in natural rubber prices
Monthly trend in natural rubber prices
Trend in NTC production (MT)
Trend in Carbon Black production (MT)
Trend in ROCE
Trend in sales and assets
Trend in Debt-Equity and Interest coverage

LIST OF TABLES
Cost economics for radial and cross-ply tyres
Key financial indicators-FY08 to FY12F
Trend in demand (in tonnes) in T&B and LCV tyres
Trend in demand (in tonnes)-Cars and Two wheeler tyres
Trend in demand (in tonnes) Tractor Front and Tractor Rear
Category-wise exports trend (in tonnes)
Estimated Installed Capacity Trends (Units in mn)
Key aggregates of the industry (units in million)
Trend in Automotive Tyres Imports
Top 10 countries from which India imports tyres
Trend in Natural Rubber production, consumption and exports
Trend in domestic PBR production and consumption (MT)
Raw material cost as a percentage to sales (%)
Employee cost as a percentage to sales (%)
Energy cost as a percentage to sales (%)
S&D cost as a percentage to sales (%)
Operating margins (%)
Key financial indicators (9 monthly)-Overall Industry
Key Financial indicators-FY04 to FY09
Apollo Tyre: Quarterly Financials
CEAT: Quarterly Financials
JK Tyres: Quarterly Financials
MRF: Quarterly Financials